Alberta separation would send Canada into uncharted territory, say legal experts

Matthew Scace · The Canadian Press

· Posted: May 08, 2025 9:27 AM EDT | Last Updated: 34 minutes ago

As separatist discontent bubbles up anew successful Alberta, experts accidental a ballot to sever ties with Canada would transportation the state into unexplored territory connected everything from wealth to First Nations and nationalist parks.

"You're successful terra incognita. You're disconnected the representation erstwhile we get to that signifier of the proceedings," said instrumentality prof Eric Adams.

"A batch of things are going to beryllium breached connected the mode retired the door."

The discontent elbowed its mode backmost into the headlines past week, with Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals winning different mandate followed by Premier Danielle Smith's authorities introducing a measure that would sharply little the barroom for citizens seeking to trigger provincewide referendums.

The measure would alteration citizen-initiated referendum rules to necessitate a petition signed by 10 per cent of the eligible voters successful a erstwhile wide predetermination — down from 20 per cent of full registered voters. Applicants would besides get 120 days, alternatively than 90, to cod the required 177,000 signatures.

Smith says Alberta has nary prime but to instrumentality steps to combat a decennary of hostile national Liberal policies, which she says person not lone taken an unfair stock of Alberta's wealthiness — but successful doing truthful person besides undermined the lipid and state manufacture that drives its economy.

The Alberta premier has repeatedly said she doesn't privation to separate, but says she needs to respect the voices of Albertans and, should determination beryllium capable signatures, has promised to initiate a separation referendum arsenic aboriginal arsenic adjacent year.

Provinces can't unilaterally separate

Adams, a instrumentality prof astatine the University of Alberta with an expertise successful law issues, said the Supreme Court of Canada has acceptable escaped guidelines connected what would hap should a state ballot to separate.

Provinces cannot unilaterally abstracted from the country, and a ballot successful favour of separation would trigger negotiations with the province, national authorities and different groups including First Nations.

And therein prevarication aboriginal questions and disputes.

Ownership implicit swaths of Crown land, including Alberta's Banff and Jasper nationalist parks, would beryllium a constituent of contention, said Allan Hutchinson, prof astatine Osgoode Hall Law School successful Toronto. He said akin questions were debated earlier the 1995 referendum successful Quebec but ne'er reached a conclusion.

"Maybe the feds volition say, 'We ain monolithic parts, they're nationalist parks. They're not yours to springiness away,"' Hutchinson said. "Maybe they'll say, 'Yeah, you tin leave, but Alberta is going to crook retired to beryllium astir a tenth of the size of what you deliberation Alberta is."'

Smith has promised a two-track strategy for the remainder of this year: negotiating with Carney's authorities to marque changes to laws and policies to buoy Alberta's system — specifically its lipid and state manufacture — portion besides hosting municipality hallway meetings crossed the state to gauge circumstantial concerns connected Alberta's existent presumption successful Confederation.

Alberta First Nations person pushed backmost connected the provincial government's latest changes to the referendum bill. Indigenous leaders connected Tuesday said the premier was utilizing authorities to get radical "to bash her soiled work."

Bruce McIvor, a pact instrumentality expert, said Alberta would look pushback from First Nations arguing that they would ne'er springiness up their land, and that separation would interruption their treaties with the national government.

"Indigenous people's position — what I perceive usually — is that they entered into pact agreements premised connected sharing the land, not surrendering it," McIvor said.

"You can't bargain someone's spot and say, 'I'm leaving."'

Smith has said a yes ballot to immoderate referendum indispensable not interruption First Nations' law pact rights.

Hutchinson said he's skeptical First Nations would get a just shingle successful negotiations.

"They should perceive to Indigenous people, but I uncertainty that the Indigenous radical volition get a veto. I truly can't spot that occurring."

Adams said it's doubtful immoderate referendum question posed to Albertans could clarify precisely what the state would beryllium getting into. Questions would stay surrounding the presumption of Alberta's currency, commercialized agreements, national supports and transportation payments, and mobility crossed borders.

The planetary dynamics would besides go unpredictable, with adversaries perchance looking to capitalize connected a play of large instability, Adams said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has continually and openly opined astir the communal benefits that would originate from annexing Canada contempt Carney stating to Trump's look this week that Canada is "not for sale."

"I don't deliberation anybody should beryllium naive that immoderate of this would beryllium easy, that immoderate of this would beryllium knowable successful advance, that anyone tin committedness what would transpire," Adams said.

"Once a concatenation absorption of this magnitude is unleashed, nary 1 knows wherever it leads."