Blue wall beats back red wave in Sask., while NDP support crumbles

Jeremy Warren · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 29, 2025 7:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 7 hours ago

Pollsters ne'er predicted a Saskatchewan spot mightiness spell orange, but the adjacent disappearance of the national NDP ballot present and crossed the state mightiness beryllium the communicative of predetermination night, according to 1 governmental watcher.

"This is simply a truly atrocious nighttime for the NDP," said Daniel Westlake, University of Saskatchewan adjunct prof of governmental studies. "The NDP bled a batch of votes to the Liberals."

Strategic voting was a blistery taxable this election. It factored into the last results nationally if not making overmuch of an interaction successful Saskatchewan, though it apt contributed to the collapse of the NDP ballot is immoderate ridings here, Westlake said.

"Some of that was strategical voting, immoderate of that was astir who was going to woody amended with Donald Trump," helium said. "It was precise wide that the NDP were not going to beryllium elected and truthful the reply to that question was not Jagmeet Singh."

Liberal campaigner Buckley Belanger is projected to triumph Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, the lone Liberal from Saskatchewan heading to Ottawa.

Conservatives won the 13 different ridings without overmuch competition. The NDP ran 3rd successful each riding.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney made 2 run stops successful Saskatoon, including 1 connected the eve of predetermination time that signalled the party's precocious hopes of flipping a spot successful the city. While Saskatchewan-specific polling suggested choky races successful Saskatoon-University, Saskatoon West and Regina-Wascana, Conservatives held connected to each three.

All 3 nationalist campaigns yet stopped successful Saskatoon. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh held an lawsuit successful the metropolis connected the aforesaid time aboriginal successful April erstwhile Carney archetypal stopped here, portion Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appeared successful Saskatoon precocious successful the campaign.

As of aboriginal Tuesday morning, the Saskatchewan fashionable ballot breakdown stood astatine 64.8 per cent for the Conservatives (up six percent points from the 2021 election), 26.4 per cent for the Liberals (up 15.9), and 7.5 per cent for the NDP (down 13.5 percent points).

WATCH | 'We privation to spot him squirm': Sask. MP says Conservatives program to 'attack' Carney successful Parliament: 

Westlake suspects Conservatives accrued their enactment by picking up anti-incumbent — that is, anti-Liberal — votes. 

"The polls were showing the Conservatives up astir wherever they had been astatine the the precocious extremity of the Harper years, truthful seeing the Conservatives doing good is not a astonishment fixed what we saw during the campaign," helium said.

"And past the progressive ballot conscionable seems to person consolidated down the Liberals, and the NDP has not been capable to bash overmuch astir that."

Outside of the cities and Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River successful the north, Conservatives won handedly successful astir different constituencies. Conservative candidates won by much than 75 per cent successful Battlefords-Lloydminster-Meadow Lake, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Swift Current-Grasslands-Kindersley, Yorkton-Melville and Souris-Moose Mountain, which had the largest borderline of triumph astatine 83.9 per cent arsenic of 12:00 a.m. Tuesday.

WATCH | Liberal candidates bespeak connected predetermination losses successful Regina: 

Two Saskatoon constituencies were the closest races and the lone Conservative seats won with little than 50 per cent of the vote. In Saskatoon-University, Conservatives took 49 per cent of the ballot compared to the Liberals' 41.2 per cent. Saskatoon South saw akin splits astatine 49.6 per cent Conservative to 40.2 per cent Liberal.

You person to spell backmost much than 30 years to find the past Liberals elected successful Saskatoon.

Georgette Sheridan and Morris Bodnar were elected successful 1993 erstwhile the Jean Chrétien-led Liberal Party returned to government. They each served 1 word and were some defeated by Reform Party candidates successful the 1997 election.

Belanger is simply a apt campaigner for furniture arsenic the lone Liberal MP successful Saskatchewan, Westlake said.

"And that comes with immoderate argumentation influence. And truthful having idiosyncratic similar Belanger with acquisition successful provincial politics, with experience working successful the governing enactment ... having that dependable astir the furniture array is astir apt significant."

A number authorities oregon adjacent a precise constrictive bulk authorities could besides beryllium a boon for backbench Liberal MPs, Westlake said.

"It's going to beryllium precise adjacent and truthful the Liberals can't spend to suffer a seat," helium said. "They can't spend to alienate immoderate of their members. And that should springiness each of their members a batch much quality to power policy."