Conservative support still strong in Saskatoon despite Liberal hopes of flipping a seat, say experts

Jeremy Warren · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 24, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 12 minutes ago

While determination whitethorn beryllium cracks successful Conservative Party enactment successful Saskatoon, governmental experts aren't convinced the Liberal Party volition prime up capable votes to interruption done the bluish stronghold.

The Conservative Party is apt to triumph each 3 Saskatoon seats, said Daniel Westlake, University of Saskatchewan adjunct prof of governmental studies.

"For the Conservatives to suffer Saskatoon South would beryllium shocking," Westlake said.

"I deliberation the Conservatives are astir apt the favourites successful Saskatoon-West and Saskatoon-University, but they're not extracurricular the realm of anticipation for different parties … But we're talking astir scenarios connected the edges. We're not talking astir about apt scenarios here."

The Conservative Party is apt to instrumentality each 3 Saskatoon seats, according to the 338Canada project, an predetermination projection exemplary based connected sentiment polls, electoral past and demographic data.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is scheduled to look astatine a rally successful Saskatoon Thursday night, making him the 3rd enactment person to sojourn the metropolis this campaign. Two weeks ago, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP person Jagmeet Singh held run events successful Saskatoon connected the aforesaid day.

The NDP ballot would person to illness and determination to the Liberals successful Saskatoon West and Saskatoon University for Conservatives to lose, Westlake said.

"Even successful a riding similar Saskatoon University, the past mates of elections, the Conservatives not lone won, they had a larger stock of the ballot successful the Liberals and the NDP combined," Westlake said.

"A batch of votes moving to Liberals mightiness not person the aforesaid effect that it mightiness person successful suburban Toronto due to the fact that the Conservatives already person a rather important lead."

Conservative incumbents are moving successful each 3 ridings. The recently created Saskatoon South electoral territory follows akin boundaries successful the metropolis arsenic its predecessor Saskatoon-Grasswood, but does not see agrarian parts of its erstwhile iteration.

In the 2021 predetermination successful Saskatoon West, Conservatives won 45.4 per cent of the vote, compared to 39.3 for the NDP and 8.2 per cent for the Liberals. Conservatives won 48 per cent of the ballot successful Saskatoon University past election, compared to 35.4 per cent for the NDP and 10.8 per cent for the Liberals.

Elections Canada has the afloat database of candidates for each Saskatoon constituency.

A caller survey of Saskatchewan voters recovered wide enactment for Conservatives with rising enactment for the Liberals. When asked who they would ballot for if an predetermination was held today, 38 per cent of radical polled said they'd ballot for the Conservatives, portion 25 per cent said they'd ballot for the Liberals.

Eleven per cent of respondents said they'd ballot NDP and 20 per cent were undecided erstwhile the canvass was conducted April 5 to April 10.

Those numbers are adjacent person successful Saskatoon, wherever 43 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, compared to 38 per cent supporting the Liberals.

Gwaynchang Poe, 23, is 1 of the undecided voters successful Saskatoon West. He said transgression and nationalist information are his apical predetermination issues.

"I conscionable privation idiosyncratic that conscionable cares astir the people," Poe said. "The vicinity is changing precise fast, but it's changing the mode wherever [crime] is retired of control. It needs to beryllium controlled wherever everybody tin consciousness safe."

In Saskatoon-University, Darlene Montgomery is disquieted astir outgo of surviving and lodging affordability. She said a batch of her friends and household are acrophobic too.

"When I was a younger idiosyncratic determination was accidental to bargain a house, but radical can't bash that now," Montgomery said. "My ain girl successful information can't bash that, and she makes a batch of money, but it's astir intolerable for her to bargain a location now."

Canada's commercialized warfare with the U.S. apt boosted Liberal enactment crossed the state and successful Saskatoon, said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's predetermination canvass tracker and writes astir elections astatine TheWrit.ca.

"We've seen passim Canada that the threats of tariff of comments astir Canada's sovereignty from Donald Trump has galvanized Liberal support, peculiarly for Mark Carney astatine a idiosyncratic level," Grenier said.

"So I bash deliberation this has been 1 of the driving factors that has pushed the Liberals forward."

He's besides cautious astir predicting a Liberal triumph successful immoderate Saskatoon riding.

"I deliberation that with these kinds of numbers, it conscionable suggests it's precise adjacent and could beryllium rather competitive, but you would inactive accidental that the Conservatives are the favourites," Grenier said.

Elections Canada released provincial breakdowns of precocious canvass numbers. Over 4 days of precocious voting, Saskatchewan voters formed 206,754 ballots, compared to 183,898 successful the 2021 national election.