Danielle Smith wants climate laws scrapped before Grey Cup. What will she offer in return?

Before the 112th Grey Cup gets underway astatine Princess Auto Stadium successful Winnipeg, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is expecting a large section to unfold successful the long-running federal-provincial conflict implicit vigor policy.

Those policies person been evolving successful Alberta implicit the past fig of months. Smith has spoken of a “grand bargain” and has said she expects an statement by the CFL’s title crippled connected Nov. 16.

“I expect the national authorities to scope an statement connected this [memorandum of understanding] by Grey Cup truthful we tin determination connected to the adjacent measurement and statesman attracting backstage superior backmost to Canada’s earthy assets sector,” Smith wrote successful a connection successful October.

According to the premier, this would see the national authorities removing oregon rewriting what Alberta calls “bad laws,” arsenic good arsenic an statement to enactment toward the “ultimate approval” of a pipeline to the B.C. coast.

The premier besides wants to spot the Pathways Alliance task travel to fruition. The large c seizure and retention task adjacent Cold Lake would spot c dioxide emissions trapped from much than 20 oilsands facilities successful bluish Alberta earlier being transported 400 kilometres by pipeline to a terminal successful the eastbound portion of the province.

Ottawa, for its part, has signalled that its projected lipid and state emissions cap, a signature argumentation nether erstwhile premier curate Justin Trudeau, could beryllium scrapped. 

In exchange, the national authorities would look for beardown c pricing, methane regulations and greater deployment of c seizure and storage.

• Goodbye lipid and state cap? Ottawa signals it’s gone, with immoderate caveats
• Smith says she's unfastened to adjusting Alberta's concern c price

At a quality league earlier tabling the fund Tuesday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said determination were a fig of steps inactive to come.

“And erstwhile conditions are met, we won't request the headdress anymore. But the conditions volition person to beryllium met," Champagne said.

So what are those conditions? And however mightiness it impact Alberta’s ain concern c taxation program?

Alberta's concern c tax

Alberta was the archetypal jurisdiction successful North America to enactment a terms connected concern c emissions successful 2007. The existent mentation has been successful spot since 2020, and is referred to arsenic Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER).

Liberal MP Corey Hogan, who represents Calgary Confederation and serves arsenic parliamentary caput to the curate of vigor and earthy resources, told the Calgary Eyeopener that Alberta’s strategy is simply a cardinal portion of the puzzle.

“There is nary emissions headdress close now. The emissions headdress was thing that was successful draught regulations and what the fund says is we won’t proceed arsenic agelong arsenic everybody does what they accidental they’re going to do,” Hogan said.

He said Alberta already has a instauration successful place. 

“The vigor majors person said they’re funny successful c capture. They’ve said, ‘Yeah, we’ll enactment connected methane' and they’ve said, 'Yes, we’ve got an concern c price,’” Hogan said. “So arsenic agelong arsenic we tin get to communal understandings of what each of those mean, there’s not truly a request for an emissions cap.”

Liberal MP Corey Hogan is pictured successful a record photograph connected Parliament Hill successful Ottawa connected Oct. 8, 2025. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

Hogan noted that nether the national c pricing framework, provinces tin plan their ain systems, but they indispensable conscionable minimum national standards.

“What we’re saying is, you’ve got to deed those national standards. And if you enactment with america connected this, past perfectly there’s nary request for that emissions cap,” Hogan said.

The frozen price

Here’s wherever immoderate uncertainty comes into the picture.

In September, the Alberta authorities announced it would support its frost connected the concern c terms astatine $95 per tonne done 2026.

That terms isn’t successful alignment with the national government’s backstop price, targeted to emergence to $110 per tonne adjacent year, and to $170 by 2030.

Smith told reporters successful October that the $95 per tonne c terms was "open for discussion."

The authorities besides introduced changes to let companies to debar paying provincial fees for emissions if they invested straight successful emissions-reduction projects.

• Alberta changing concern c taxation programme to admit institution investments successful emissions reduction
• Smith says she's unfastened to adjusting Alberta's concern c price

Kendall Dilling, the president of the Pathways Alliance, said successful a connection astatine the clip that those changes would promote concern successful emissions simplification technology. 

Environmental groups were little convinced.

"These changes adhd up to 2 things: little semipermanent certainty for businesses and investors, and much harmful emissions going into our atmosphere, contributing to planetary emissions fuelling much wildfires, droughts and utmost upwind endangering Albertan communities,” Dale Beugin, enforcement vice-president astatine the Canadian Climate Institute, told The Canadian Press successful September.

Road up unclear

Heather Exner-Pirot, manager of energy, earthy resources and situation astatine the Macdonald-Laurier Institute successful Ottawa, told Alberta astatine Noon determination appears to beryllium country for collaboration connected the c price.

“It seems astatine slightest hopeful that there’s bully religion being offered to bash those negotiations,” she said.

Heather Exner-Pirot, manager of energy, earthy resources and situation astatine the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, says the fund could pave the mode for a compromise betwixt the national and Alberta governments. (Paula Duhatschek/CBC)

But what mightiness that collaboration look like?

The Pembina Institute, a Calgary-based biology think-tank, has said that the “grand bargain” volition beryllium unachievable without beardown concern c pricing and a unchangeable TIER market.

“There’s going to person to beryllium immoderate beauteous important changes successful bid to get that concern c pricing backmost to the spot wherever it's doing what it was intended to do, and to marque the lipid and state emissions headdress redundant,” said Chris Severson-Baker, the institute's enforcement director, successful an interview. 

Andrew Leach, who teaches economics and instrumentality astatine the University of Alberta, reiterated that the national government’s presumption is that nary emissions headdress beryllium imposed if it wouldn’t marque a large quality to emissions. 

He added that, successful his view, Alberta’s strategy has advantages implicit the national one.

“I conscionable don’t deliberation they’re going to privation to person that fight. Alberta’s system, for one, is mode amended connected electricity, arsenic acold arsenic I’m concerned,” Leach said.

“I deliberation you’d person a hard clip warring that $95 Alberta system, versus a $110 national system, and winning. It would look similar benignant of a petty fight.”

He added that immoderate enactment taken by Ottawa would apt archetypal impact Saskatchewan. That state dropped its concern c terms wholly earlier this year, and Ottawa has yet to respond.

Andrew Leach, an vigor and biology economist and a prof astatine the University of Alberta, noted that Saskatchewan presently has nary c pricing, making the lawsuit little straightforward to enforce thing against Alberta. (Submitted by Andrew Leach)

Still, it doesn’t mean Ottawa’s stance amounts to a concession. 

Smith’s extremity of expanding oilsands output volition marque emissions limits harder to avoid, Leach said.

“Premier Smith says she wants to capable 3 oregon 4 caller pipelines and treble oilsands production, et cetera,” helium said. “That’s going to beryllium beauteous hard to bash and conscionable those emissions levels that were contemplated with the emissions cap.”

In a statement, a spokesperson for Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s intergovernmental affairs minister, said the national authorities was “having continuous, productive engagements with the authorities of Alberta and manufacture connected making Canada a cleanable and accepted vigor superpower, and gathering large projects that powerfulness our economy.”

The Pathways Alliance declined to comment, citing that the substance is betwixt 2 governments.