Do the Liberals have a hope of reclaiming Regina-Wascana this election?

Alexander Quon · CBC

· Posted: Apr 22, 2025 6:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 12 minutes ago

As the national predetermination looms, experts accidental they expect the Conservative Party of Canada to support its beardown grip connected Saskatchewan, but the Liberals could perchance interruption done successful a fistful of ridings. 

Saskatchewan's 14 national electoral districts person been wholly bluish since 2019.

Experts person already highlighted Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River as territory that could potentially change hands this election.

One of the different Saskatchewan seats that could beryllium susceptible to a surging Liberal Party is Regina-Wascana.

Daniel Westlake, an adjunct prof of governmental studies astatine the University of Saskatchewan, and Éric Grenier, a polls expert and the creator of thewrit.ca, agreed successful abstracted interviews that the Liberals could enactment up a existent combat successful the district.

"It was really, speech from the bluish riding [of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River], the lone spot wherever the Liberals were marginally competitive," Grenier said.

What's not wide is whether that competitiveness could construe to a win.

The experts said that though the Liberals whitethorn person held Regina-Wascana for 25 years, that whitethorn person been owed to the enduring popularity of Ralph Goodale, rather than important enactment for the Liberals.

"I deliberation it's going to beryllium hard for the Liberals to triumph the riding with the campaigner that doesn't person the benignant of provincial popularity of Goodale," Westlake said.

The Ralph Goodale effect

For 25 years, Regina-Wascana was held by 1 man: Liberal MP Ralph Goodale. 

From 1994 to 2019, Goodale was a resolute diagnostic astatine community events successful Regina.

In Ottawa, helium served successful the governments of Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Justin Trudeau successful a assortment of portfolios, including arsenic curate of nationalist information and curate of finance.

Then, during the 2019 national election, the Conservative Party rode a bluish question to expanse each 14 national seats successful Saskatchewan. Goodale was defeated by Conservative campaigner Michael Kram, who remains the incumbent MP.

Goodale, the existent precocious commissioner to the United Kingdom, remains the astir caller Liberal MP from Saskatchewan. 

Not having a popular, big-name campaigner similar Goodale makes immoderate effort to triumph Regina-Wascana a situation for the Liberals. 

Westlake said helium has spoken to Liberal campaigners successful Regina-Wascana and taken 1 happening distant from those conversations.

"A lot of that ballot erstwhile the Liberals were winning that riding was a Ralph Goodale vote," Westlake said. 

Grenier said there person been fewer Regina-specific polls, truthful that makes riding-by-ridingpredictions difficult. 

A caller canvass commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy shows that Conservative enactment remains precocious crossed the province.

So though the Liberals are picking up enactment successful the cities, Grenier said it's improbable to construe to a win.

"You would inactive see that the Conservative would beryllium the favourite to clasp it, conscionable based connected however they are inactive starring by important borderline successful each canvass that we've seen," Grenier said.

NDP gains successful provincial election unlikely to translate: experts

The results of past year's provincial predetermination — wherever the NDP swept each but 1 municipality riding — are improbable to construe to a akin effect successful the national election, the adept said.

One of the cardinal reasons is electoral geography. 

In the provincial election, determination are a batch of ridings that are smaller and located successful the halfway of Regina oregon Saskatoon. 

"Ridings are a batch larger geographically astatine the national level, which means you truly person these ridings that are mixed suburban-city centre ridings," Westlake said.

A batch of those suburban votes volition beryllium conservative-leaning, helium said.

Both experts agreed the the electorate volition often ballot otherwise in provincial and national elections.

The provincial effect was driven by an anti-incumbent vote, according to Westlake, and the Liberals are the incumbents successful this national election.

Another crushed is that the potential for a ballot divided among progressive voters, which wasn't a factor in the provincial election, Westlake said. At the national level, progressive voters whitethorn beryllium divided betwixt the Liberals and the NDP, which makes winning seats much challenging.

"Pull all those 3 things unneurotic and you've got a national predetermination that's much challenging for some the Liberals and the NDP," Westlake said.

Overview

The 52 quadrate kilometres of Regina-Wascana cover a southeast information of Regina with a colonisation of 89,063 people, according to Elections Canada.

The easiest mode to recognize the riding's boundaries is to ideate lasting astatine the intersection of Albert St. and Saskatchewan Dr. If you were to travel south connected Albert St. and East connected Saskatchewan Drive until you deed the borderline of the City of Regina limits you'll person covered Regina-Wascana.

Five candidates volition beryllium connected the ballot successful Regina-Wascana erstwhile votes are formed connected April 28, according to Elections Canada: 

• Peter Bruce - People's Party of Canada.
• Kimberly Epp - Green Party.
• Michael Kram - Conservative.
• Kaitlyn Stadnyk - NDP.
• Jeffery Walters - Liberal.