How much of a role did climate change play with Hurricane Melissa?

Nicole Mortillaro · CBC News

· Posted: Nov 01, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: November 1

Millions of radical crossed the Caribbean are trying to woody with the devastating effects of Hurricane Melissa, which tore done the portion this week.

Like truthful galore storms of late, Melissa underwent a accelerated intensification, defined arsenic erstwhile a storm’s maximum sustained upwind velocity increases by 51 km/h implicit 24 hours.

Melissa strengthened by 112 km/h implicit that aforesaid period, making it a lawsuit of what immoderate are calling utmost accelerated intensification.

As we proceed to pain fossil fuels, pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, the satellite continues to warm, causing myriad changes successful upwind patterns and the wide climate.

So what was clime change’s relation with Hurricane Melissa?

Warmer oceans

Scientists are getting amended astatine analyzing the effects of clime alteration connected terrible upwind events, similar droughts, floods and hurricanes.

There are respective organizations doing their ain analyses, including Environment and Climate Change Canada.

One of these organizations — which includes clime scientists from astir the satellite — is ClimaMeter. It did a accelerated attribution investigation of Hurricane Melissa and recovered that some clime alteration and earthy variability played a role.

An aerial presumption of Black River, Jamaica, is shown connected Thursday, successful the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. (Matias Delacroix/The Associated Press)

It recovered that hurricanes akin to Melissa are astir 10 per cent wetter and 10 per cent windier than successful the past owed to our changing climate. Natural variability played a relation successful its enactment and path.

One of the main ways successful which clime alteration plays a relation is successful the alteration successful our oceans. Temperatures person been historically warmer than normal, and that lukewarm h2o acts arsenic the substance for hurricanes. The warmer the water, the much fuel.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, a radical of autarkic scientists who study connected clime change, said the somesthesia successful the Caribbean Sea is anyplace from 1.4 C to 2 C warmer than average.

This illustration shows however clime alteration influenced water temperatures aft Hurricane Melissa was downgraded to a Category 1 tempest aft passing implicit Cuba. (Climate Central)

“We cognize that those h2o temperatures are made anyplace from 500 to 700 times much apt to beryllium that lukewarm astatine this clip of the twelvemonth successful this portion of the Caribbean owed to the excess vigor that we arsenic humans person enactment into the ambiance that past sinks into the ocean,” Winkley said.

This successful crook tin lend to accelerated intensification, arsenic it has with 4 of the 5 hurricanes that person formed successful the Atlantic Basin.

“This is thing that we didn't spot a mates of decades agone but that we're present seeing astatine slightest each season, if not adjacent aggregate times [a] season,” Winkley said.

Higher winds

Another autarkic investigation was done by Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, which focuses connected clime alteration and the environment.

Using its Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS), the investigation recovered that clime alteration accrued Melissa’s upwind velocity by astir 7 per cent, oregon 18 km/h.

WATCH | Inside the oculus of Hurricane Melissa:

While galore radical absorption connected the accelerated intensification of hurricanes, Ralf Toumi, manager of the Grantham Institute and co-author of the analysis, said that’s not needfully what we should beryllium focusing on.

“People speech astir the accelerated intensification. I deliberation ... that's just enough, but it really happened days earlier the landfall … it rapidly intensified to Category 4 implicit 24 hours,” helium said.

“The different intensification was that arsenic it approached the island, it truly became thing altogether much nasty due to the fact that it became fundamentally a Category 6 ... but we don't person this class due to the fact that folklore says that thing implicit a 5 causes the aforesaid magnitude of damage, fundamentally implicit damage. So there's nary request to.”

The investigation besides concluded that this benignant of hurricane lawsuit was 4 times much apt compared with pre-industrial times.

“We deliberation it's similar pre-industrial earlier the warming happened, it would person been possibly 1 successful 8,000-year return,” Toumi said. “Even present [it] would beryllium similar a 1,000-year, 2,000-year event. So adjacent present it's highly unlikely, but past [the] header fig that it's fundamentally go 4 times much likely."

As for the destruction, the authors recovered that without clime change, a weaker hurricane would person been astir 12 per cent little damaging. (They did not absorption connected harm estimates, arsenic it is excessively soon to archer what that fig volition be.)

What does it each mean?

While the numbers whitethorn alteration betwixt the accelerated attribution groups owed to their methodology, the connection is inactive the same: Climate alteration is altering hurricanes.

As we pump much fossil fuels into our atmosphere, the oceans — which sorb much than 90 per cent of excess vigor trapped by greenhouse gases — volition proceed to warm, and hurricanes volition proceed their destruction.

Asked by CBC News what this means for the future, Toumi said, "I deliberation what it's saying is, you know, determination are limits to adaptation. People speech about, 'Oh, we person to absorption connected adaptation and resilience.' And there's decidedly benefits, you know, astatine immoderate level.

"But you can't accommodate to a Category 5. It volition outgo you a fortune. Basically, you can't physique for that benignant of resilience. So determination are limits to adaptation."