Oil prices could rebound slightly this year, Deloitte forecasts, but risks loom

Karina Zapata · CBC News

· Posted: Jul 07, 2025 7:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

After respective months of volatility successful the market, a caller forecast is predicting somewhat stronger lipid prices for the remainder of 2025 — but immoderate experts pass determination are galore factors that could alteration that outlook.

Deloitte Canada released its quarterly energy, lipid and state terms forecast connected Monday. Andrew Botterill, an vigor spouse with Deloitte who's based successful Calgary, said the forecasts purpose to assistance the assemblage amended understand challenges and opportunities that whitethorn prevarication ahead.

"Obviously, we person immoderate conflicts crossed the globe that could thrust immoderate volatility successful our prices. But I deliberation what we are expecting successful the backmost fractional of this twelvemonth is astir apt thing a small spot amended than what we saw successful the archetypal half," said Botterill.

"$70, $72 per tube is what we're forecasting for the backmost of this year, with immoderate optimism."

Deloitte is besides projecting higher earthy state prices done 2025 onward, present that LNG Canada is officially online, sparking optimism that "the epoch of highly debased Canadian state prices compared to Henry Hub, whitethorn yet end," said the report.

LNG Canada creates a competitory vantage for occidental Canada, Botterill said, which is bully quality for companies. But helium warns erstwhile it comes clip for Albertans to vigor their homes, they could spot prices rise above $3 per gigajoule successful 2026, compared with the mean outgo of $1.71 successful 2025.

OPEC+ ups production

While determination is optimism successful the industry, Botterill said determination are immoderate factors that could impact prices moving forward.

According to Deloitte's forecast, OPEC+, a radical of oil-exporting nations, has moved guardant with reversing its voluntary accumulation cuts. The radical besides announced it volition nutrient an further 411,000 barrels per time successful July.

"This marks the 3rd consecutive period of important increases since April 2025, suggesting that OPEC+ is apt seeking to summation greater marketplace stock from non-OPEC producers," said the report.

Bloomberg besides reported that the group, which is guided by Saudi Arabia, is considering producing adjacent much successful August, which is much quicker than expected.

When looking astatine factors similar U.S. tariffs and conflicts successful the Middle East, Alberta Central Chief Economist Charles St-Arnaud said the hazard of Saudi Arabia expanding its proviso volition apt person the biggest interaction connected lipid prices for the remainder of the year.

"I deliberation we could astir apt spell backmost to wherever we were conscionable a mates of weeks agone erstwhile we reached $55 a barrel," said St-Arnaud.

Richard Masson said it's important to retrieve that the Alberta government's fiscal fund for this twelvemonth is based connected lipid prices sitting astatine $68 a barrel.

Each $1 driblet successful that terms results successful a nonaccomplishment of $750 cardinal for the province, said Masson, who's an enforcement chap astatine the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and erstwhile CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.

But Masson said Albertans shouldn't beryllium excessively acrophobic — for now.

"Alberta is successful bully signifier to upwind a storm. But … with volatility successful prices and a spot little prices, it means little activity, little lipid drilling, state drilling, little oilsands projects, those types of things that trim economical activity," said Masson, who predicts lipid prices volition stay comparatively weak.

"If it stays that mode for a play of time, the Alberta authorities is going to person to deliberation astir ways to respond by squaring its fiscal location a small spot amended than it is."

He said the state could bash that by cutting nationalist services oregon uncovering different ways to summation revenue.

On the agleam side, St-Arnaud said the Trans Mountain Pipeline enlargement has enactment Alberta successful a stronger position. He credits Trans Mountain's enlargement for narrowing the terms differential betwixt the Canadian terms of lipid — known arsenic Western Canada Select — and the U.S. benchmark price, West Texas Intermediate. This could assistance offset immoderate of the weaker prices, helium said.

Cautious optimism

Despite the volatility and uncertainty ahead, Botterill said there's a newfound assurance successful the sector.

"Our vigor companies are feeling much optimistic than they person successful the past decade, but they besides admit they're cautiously optimistic," said Botterill.

He said galore spot this clip arsenic an accidental to nonstop a connection to the remainder of the state — and the satellite — to put successful Canada and subdivision retired truthful we aren't relying connected the U.S. arsenic a sole customer.

"I deliberation there's much accidental successful the realization that possibly we're talking astir a caller benignant of epoch successful Canadian energy."