The GTA's top federal election storylines

John Rieti · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 28, 2025 12:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

Election time is present and the Greater Toronto Area is erstwhile again poised to beryllium the portion that has a immense accidental successful who becomes Canada's adjacent premier minister. 

Polling stations adjacent astatine 9:30 p.m. ET, truthful delight get retired and ballot portion you tin today. Head to the Elections Canada website if you request accusation connected however to vote.

CBC News volition person unrecorded results arsenic soon arsenic they commencement rolling in. 

Here are the cardinal storylines we're watching successful the CBC Toronto newsroom — and cheque backmost connected this communicative due to the fact that we'll beryllium updating it erstwhile we cognize more. 

Can the Conservatives triumph much GTA seats?

There are 31 seats up for grabs successful the GTA, and close present the Conservatives person conscionable 4 of them.

If the Conservatives can't summation that total, it's hard to spot a way to triumph — fto unsocial a bulk government. 

Here are 2 ridings wherever Pierre Poilievre's enactment volition beryllium hoping to interruption through:

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill: The riding that gave the Liberals their slimmest borderline of triumph successful the full 905 successful the past predetermination campaign, astatine conscionable 3.1 per cent.  

Newmarket-Aurora: The Liberal MP who held the spot is not moving again.

WATCH: Breaking down wherefore these ridings substance truthful overmuch to the Conservatives:

Will the Liberals retake Toronto-St. Paul's?

It was a governmental earthquake past summertime erstwhile the Conservatives won a byelection successful Toronto-St. Paul's, agelong heralded arsenic a Liberal stronghold smack successful the centre of the city. 

Can the Liberals triumph it backmost present that Mark Carney is leading the enactment alternatively of Justin Trudeau?

• Looking for much ridings to watch? Here's a longer database of absorbing races

WATCH | The CBC's Chris Glover heads to Toronto's Davenport (which the Liberals won by conscionable 165 votes successful 2021) to interruption down the closest races successful the past national election:

Candidate watch

Federal elections are often each astir picking a enactment and premier minister, but erstwhile you participate the polling booth you'll truly beryllium voting for your section MP. There are immoderate candidates we'll beryllium watching connected predetermination night, present are a few:

Bhutila Karpoche (NDP): The fashionable NDP person who became the archetypal Tibetan-Canadian elected astatine Queen's Park is making her archetypal national run. Can she interruption done successful a metropolis that's been dominated by the Liberals?

Jamil Jivani (CON): He cruised to a byelection triumph successful what is present Bowmanville–Oshawa North (a Tory stronghold) successful 2024, but the governmental clime is radically antithetic now. Jivani's assemblage buddy is ... U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. Will that wounded his governmental chances? 

Jennifer McKelvie (LIB): She's a Toronto metropolis councillor but she's stepped backmost from that gig to tally successful Ajax, wherever she says she has "deep idiosyncratic and nonrecreational ties." Will that beryllium capable to clasp the seat?

Will Burlington prime the victor again?

Via Mike Crawley, our newsroom's electoral historian: Burlington has elected a subordinate of the winning enactment successful each wide predetermination since 1984.

Some 31,868 person already formed their ballot during beforehand polls successful the riding, according to Elections Canada data.

It's looking similar elector turnout volition improve

Remember however the GTA is ace politically important? It's besides got apathy issues. 

WATCH: What bash wealth, loneliness and acquisition person successful common? They each impact someone's likeliness to vote: 

The portion was location to 9 of the 10 Ontario ridings with the worst elector turnout successful the 2021 national predetermination — the lowest being in King-Vaughan, wherever less than fractional of eligible voters formed a ballot.

A grounds 7.3 cardinal Canadians voted early, but we'll inactive beryllium watching this to spot however it goes.