Why Alberta politics may be getting more polarized — and why that matters

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this nationalist sentiment probe to beryllium conducted instantly pursuing the national predetermination and starring into the 2nd day of the United Conservative Party's provincial predetermination triumph successful May 2023. 

As with each polls, this 1 provides a snapshot successful time. 

This investigation is 1 successful a bid of articles from this research. More stories volition follow.

If Albertans consciousness a divergence of governmental attitudes — a displacement from the centre, toward much ideological extremes — successful the province, they aren't wrong, according to a caller canvass commissioned by CBC Calgary.

"I deliberation we are truthful polarized," lamented Calgary's Jillian Reimer arsenic she and her 2 boys sipped drinks extracurricular a java store recently.

"I would similar to person much conversations. I deliberation there's precise small that's really achromatic and achromatic and truthful overmuch much that's nuanced," she told a CBC News writer asking Calgary residents astir their impressions of Premier Danielle Smith.   

Reimer applauds Smith's defence of the vigor industry, but not her actions connected wellness care. The Calgary pistillate laughed erstwhile told she is portion of a shrinking radical of radical who complaint Smith determination successful the middle.

From the mainstreaming of "F--k Trudeau" bumper stickers and flags to the heated code of societal media debate, our governmental sermon tin often consciousness much barbed and split.

While a 2023 governmental subject survey recovered "only mixed grounds that Canadians are diverging ideologically and becoming much polarized," information from CBC News' caller canvass suggests an summation successful governmental polarization among  Albertans, pointing toward perchance much contentious times up for the prairie province.  

Why we should attraction astir polarization 

Polarization isn't needfully a atrocious thing, according to a information idiosyncratic who analyzed the canvass results for CBC News.

"It's important to place wherever the responsibility lines successful nine are," said John Santos. 

He believes that, if we cognize wherever the cracks are successful our politics, we tin effort to meaningfully grapple with divergent views and democratically benignant retired our differences. 

"We request to woody with those successful a mode wherever people's concerns are heard and they consciousness similar they person a dependable and a accidental successful the antiauthoritarian process," Santos told CBC News.  

Experts accidental addressing these governmental fractures tin blunt the entrenchment that polarization tin trigger. 

Political scientists differentiate betwixt ideological polarization — the divergence implicit argumentation connected issues from the health-care strategy to taxes — and alleged affective polarization, the affectional dislike oregon distrust that radical consciousness for the different side. 

"We interest astir the effect of polarization," said University of Calgary governmental idiosyncratic Lisa Young,  "because it's hard to person a functioning ideology erstwhile you spot your opponents not arsenic … coming from a antithetic position oregon being misguided, but arsenic being evil."

Albertans' formation to the extremes of ideology

The canvass does not measurement however Albertans consciousness astir their governmental opponents, but the information does suggest an summation successful governmental polarization connected values and worldviews.

Over the past 7 years, CBC News has polled voters astir their ideology, asking them to spot themselves connected the left-right spectrum, with zero being highly left-wing oregon progressive and 10 being intensely right-wing oregon conservative. 

Consistent with erstwhile polling, the latest typical survey recovered that Albertans, for the astir part, spot themselves arsenic governmental centrists with a flimsy close skew: on average, they rated themselves astatine 5.8 retired of 10 connected this scale.

But portion the mean is lone up slightly, less individuals successful the caller survey identified their worldview arsenic centrist, erstwhile compared to erstwhile surveys successful caller years.

Most of the intensification happened connected the close broadside of the governmental spectrum, with an expanding fig of Albertans standing themselves an eight, nine or 10. The near broadside of the spectrum, by contrast, appears comparatively stable. 

In summation to ideology, Albertans look to beryllium polarizing connected governmental values.

Polarization connected worth questions

Since 2018, the fig of Albertans who deliberation we'd person less problems if determination was much accent connected accepted household values has remained steady, with astir two-thirds of radical agreeing with that sentiment. 

Yet, the fig of Albertans who powerfully hold with the value of household values has notably grown, from 35 to 40 per cent, implicit the past 7 years.

Additionally, the fig of Albertans who powerfully hold that societal programs marque radical little consenting to look aft themselves has grown to 21 per cent successful the caller poll, up from 15 per cent erstwhile CBC News archetypal asked the aforesaid question 5 years ago.

"There is simply a wide responsibility enactment successful Alberta today, and I deliberation this mirrors a batch of what we're seeing crossed the precocious concern West," said Santos.

"What gets difficult," helium added, "is erstwhile radical are unwilling to compromise, erstwhile disagreeing leads to being disagreeable."

There is besides grounds of expanding polarization implicit Alberta's spot successful Canada — and Albertans' attachment to the state and province. 

The lastest canvass besides recovered increasing spot of enactment among Albertans who deliberation the oil-rich state would beryllium amended disconnected if it separated from Canada. In March 2020, lone 11 per cent "strongly" agreed. But successful the canvass this spring, that sentiment grew to 17 per cent.

"I would accidental this is astir apt the astir polarized that I've seen since I've been studying and tracking nationalist sentiment successful Alberta," said Santos.

There's besides grounds of polarization erstwhile it comes to Smith's leadership, arsenic premier.  

Talking with astir a twelve voters successful Calgary's southeast assemblage of McKenzie Towne astir Smith, it was casual to find divided opinions.

Most radical either loved her oregon were rather disappointed, aligning with the CBC News polling results that suggest astir adjacent numbers of Albertans are highly impressed with her, oregon not impressed astatine all.

A tiny group — lone 16 per cent of Albertans — had a middle-of-the-road content of Smith.

And this increasing part whitethorn beryllium a byproduct of Alberta's progressively competitory governmental landscape, according to Janet Brown, who conducted the canvass for CBC News.

Why are we seeing expanding polarization?

For decades, Progressive Conservative governments remained a changeless successful Alberta politics. 

The party's unbroken regularisation — 12 consecutive predetermination wins — ran from 1971 to 2015. 

Brown believes the predetermination of the New Democrats a decennary agone dialled up the polarization she recovered successful her caller random survey of 1,200 Albertans.

"For a agelong time, Alberta was fundamentally a one-party state," said Brown.

The astonishment triumph of the NDP 10 years agone thrust Alberta into a competitive, two-party system.

"It conscionable makes authorities a batch much divisive. It makes nationalist dialog much contentious," said Brown. 

The NDP authorities was a "shock to the governmental system," according to Young, who has studied Alberta authorities for decades.

"It truly did nonstop everyone to their corners, politically," she added. 

The NDP triumph successful 2015 besides appears to person amped up the emotions — oregon affective polarization — successful Alberta politics, according to Young.  

"We spot radical connected some sides entrenching themselves much and more," she said. 

This widening disagreement whitethorn repel middle-of-the-road Alberta voters specified as Reimer, who prides herself connected being a centrist.

"Hopefully, we tin turn that mediate group," she said.

"I deliberation that would beryllium amended for our society, arsenic a whole, if we could person much radical successful the middle, not conscionable afloat achromatic and achromatic connected 1 broadside oregon the other."

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted utilizing a hybrid method betwixt May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research nether the absorption of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The illustration is typical of regional, property and sex factors. The borderline of mistake is +/- 2.8 percent points, 19 times retired of 20. For subsets, the borderline of mistake is larger.

The survey utilized a hybrid methodology that progressive contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the enactment of completing the survey astatine that time, astatine different much convenient time, oregon receiving an email nexus and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted radical utilizing a random database of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to 5 times astatine 5 antithetic times of time earlier different telephone fig was added to the sample. The effect complaint among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.