Will Danielle Smith steer Alberta away from separation, or will this train keep gathering steam?

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

· Posted: May 09, 2025 2:26 PM EDT | Last Updated: 4 minutes ago

When Premier Danielle Smith speaks, she's inactive placing the Canadian flags down her successful among the Alberta provincial flags.

As overmuch arsenic critics importune she's either a separatist herself oregon is opening the doorway wide to the Alberta secessionist question by easing the rules to person a referendum adjacent year, the premier herself maintains that she wants Alberta to enactment wrong the country.

"Acknowledging thing exists is not the aforesaid arsenic fanning it," Smith told the Alberta podcast Real Talk with Ryan Jespersen connected Thursday. "My occupation is to marque definite it doesn't get higher. My occupation is to marque definite it gets lower."

But if the premier is determined to sway pro-separatists and support the Ottawa-wary successful the Canadian camp, did she assistance that origin with this week's array of demands for Prime Minister Mark Carney to fulfil in the adjacent six months? 

She's calling for casual entree to widen caller lipid and state pipelines to each 3 water coasts, a surge successful caller fiscal transfers and the erasure of galore (if not most) of the Liberal government's clime policies

"There's simply nary mode the national authorities volition beryllium capable to [do that] — it doesn't person the powerfulness to bash immoderate of the things she's asking for," said Feo Snagovsky, a University of Alberta governmental idiosyncratic who researches occidental alienation.

"In that sense, astir from the outset, the national authorities is doomed to fail."

Snagovsky wondered if by mounting "maximalist demands," Smith mightiness beryllium capable to state triumph by reaching mediate points with Ottawa successful negotiations toward what she's calling the "Alberta accord."

However, earlier the predetermination she wasn't discussing compromise. After her archetypal gathering with Carney successful March, she acceptable retired akin demands and warned of an "unprecedented nationalist unity crisis" if her demands weren't met.

One whitethorn wonderment if we're already successful oregon connected the verge of nationalist unity situation mode, fixed the beardown likelihood of an Alberta referendum to interruption up Canada that Smith said she'd docket successful 2026 if capable petitioners petition it — a threshold her authorities has recently lowered.

David Cameron whitethorn privation a word

The parallels to 2016's Brexit referendum look wide to Snagovsky: U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron scheduled a ballot connected leaving the European Union that helium publically opposed and didn't judge would succeed. Until it did, and helium resigned successful disgrace.

Smith cannot presume the absorption against an Alberta exit holds, Snagovsky said.

"It's arsenic apt that lowering this threshold for the fig of minimum votes [to get a referendum] mightiness summation this benignant of sentiment, due to the fact that campaigns person a mobilizing effect," helium said.

While Smith has firmly positioned herself and her enactment arsenic federalist, it remains unclear from her statements this week whether she'd actively run connected the "no" broadside of a referendum.

Findings successful a caller Angus Reid canvass suggest it could beryllium successful her governmental interests to permission the campaigning to others.

It showed that 36 per cent of Albertans would decidedly ballot oregon thin toward voting to permission Canada successful a secession referendum, but that fig leaps to 65 per cent among supporters of her United Conservatives.

"As separation rises successful Alberta, the thought is bound to beryllium adjacent much fashionable wrong the UCP membership," said Peter McCaffrey, who has been progressive with the UCP since its founding successful 2017, and present leads a libertarian deliberation tank.

He believes the enactment volition person a "healthy debate" connected sovereignty wrong its ranks. 

"The acquisition Alberta conservatives learned from the Progressive Conservative/Wildrose divided was that if you effort to unopen down debates connected arguable ideas, the debates don't spell away, they conscionable migrate into a caller party," McCaffrey said. (The Republican Party of Alberta has been vocal successful the national election's aftermath and is wooing disaffected UCPers, but it's unclear however overmuch momentum they have.)

It's wholly imaginable immoderate UCP activists effort to get the enactment to formally follow separatist policies oregon principles — aft all, successful caller years Smith's enactment grassroots person pushed her to follow caller rules for transgender youth, an expanded Human Rights Act and a prohibition connected vote-counting machines, and she's acted connected them.

Separatism's emergence and an upcoming byelection successful Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could besides airs problems wrong Smith's governmental base.

Insiders judge enactment members could nominate a separatist UCP campaigner successful that riding — oregon the premier could caput disconnected that menace and name a candidate, but that could disturbance dissent among her grassroots and springiness vigor to a Republican Party campaigner successful that area.

And there's a humanities echo. In a 1982 byelection, the Olds-Didsbury riding rejected the governing Tories and voted successful Gordon Kesler, with the Western Canada Concept, an openly separatist party.

LISTEN | First Nations lawyer discusses separation and pact law:

Smith has planned a sheet to circuit the state and perceive federal-provincial grievances and solutions, similar erstwhile premier Jason Kenney did earlier her aft the 2019 national Liberal win.

Unlike the retired person Kenney named to his Fair Deal Panel, Smith named herself to caput this road-tripping summertime panel. That could heighten the publicity and value astir it.

Smith went connected a listening roadworthy amusement past twelvemonth to UCP municipality halls, wherever she fielded sometimes unorthodox questions astir vaccine information and chemtrails.

But this year's sheet would beryllium public, and not a party-only affair, starring to the anticipation that Albertans some wrong her campy and opposed to her amusement up and talk retired connected different provincial grievances.

Meanwhile, successful Alberta

After all, portion the separation contented consumes overmuch oxygen — arsenic nationally existential questions are wont to bash — there's overmuch other going connected worthy scrutinizing successful this province.

Lower lipid prices volition endanger the system and widen Alberta's fund deficit.

RCMP and auditor investigations into Alberta Health Services procurement and the firing of its CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos proceed to bent implicit this government's grounds — and its monolithic experimentation successful wellness strategy restructuring is unfolding successful the meantime.

A measles outbreak has been raging since February, and lone this week did the authorities denote a large vaccination consciousness campaign.

There's a increasing hazard of imaginable strikes by teachers provincewide and unionized provincial employees.

And the U.S. tariff threats and harm by those already imposed haven't vanished, though that's what premiers different than Smith are much apt to speech about.

Alberta's person told Postmedia this week that galore disaffected Albertans spot the menace coming from the east, similar different Canadians comprehend the menace from the south.

"As frightened arsenic these radical are of what Donald Trump is going to bash to their economy, that's however frightened Albertans are of what the Liberals are going to bash to the Alberta economy," Smith said.

And conscionable arsenic heightened anti-American feelings person risen broadly — including successful Alberta — the separatist question is aiming to alteration the long-brewing anti-Ottawa sentiment into an anti-Canada sentiment.