68,000 job losses possible in Ontario this year due to U.S. trade war: report

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Toronto·New

U.S. tariffs and Canada’s effect could effect successful 68,100 less jobs successful Ontario this year, according to a caller report. This fig whitethorn summation to 119,200 jobs successful 2026 and 137,900 jobs successful 2029, according to the study by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), released Wednesday.

Economic maturation whitethorn dilatory successful province, prices could spell up for consumers, FAO says

Rochelle Raveendran · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 30, 2025 11:02 AM EDT | Last Updated: 1 infinitesimal ago

Photo of a antheral wearing information goggles moving successful a factory. He is holding a airy motortruck transmission and is wearing achromatic gloves.

U.S. tariffs and Canada's effect could effect successful 68,100 less jobs successful Ontario this year, according to a caller report.

This fig whitethorn summation to 119,200 jobs successful 2026 and 137,900 jobs successful 2029, according to the study by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), released Wednesday.

The FAO provides autarkic fiscal and economical investigation to the Ontario legislature.

Wednesday's study compares a tariff script based connected commercialized actions announced by the U.S. and Canada arsenic of April 17 against a nary tariff scenario.

U.S. tariffs are expected to rise Ontario's unemployment complaint by 1.1 per cent from 2025 to 2029, compared to the nary tariff scenario, the study said.

The bulk of predicted occupation losses would hap successful the manufacturing sector, arsenic good arsenic related proviso concatenation industries, according to the report.

Primary metallic industries would beryllium hardest deed by occupation losses, with 17,700 less jobs expected, the study said. That's followed by centrifugal conveyance parts industries, and machinery and electronics.

Windsor would beryllium the astir affected country successful the province, arsenic employment is predicted to alteration by 1.6 per cent successful 2026, the study said.

The metropolis is followed successful bid by Guelph, Brantford, the Region of Waterloo and London.

The commercialized warfare is besides predicted to dilatory Ontario's economical maturation and rise prices for consumers, the study found.

'Modest recession' imaginable successful 2025

The study analyzed the interaction of U.S. tariffs connected steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts, arsenic good arsenic Canadian reactionary tariffs.

Under the script considered successful the report, U.S. tariffs volition impact 20 per cent of Ontario's planetary exports. Meanwhile, the Canadian government's retaliatory tariffs volition impact 15 per cent of the province's planetary exports.

WATCH | Windsor could spot up to 30% unemployment aft U.S. tariffs, politician says:

Windsor, Ont., politician says tariff interaction connected his assemblage was 'immediate'

Canada avoided broad-based tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump this week, but thousands of workers successful Windsor, Ont., are already retired of work. Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens estimates his metropolis could spot up to 30 per cent unemployment due to the fact that of U.S. car tariffs. A speedy solution betwixt Canada and the U.S. is 'imperative,' says Dilkens.

The U.S. is Ontario's astir important trading partner, accounting for astir of the province's planetary trade, the study said.

As request for Ontario exports goes down successful the U.S., the province's existent GDP maturation successful 2025 would beryllium 0.6 per cent — little than fractional the projected maturation successful the nary tariff scenario.

"This implies that a humble recession would hap successful 2025," the study said.

Within manufacturing, the centrifugal conveyance parts manufacture would beryllium the astir impacted, the study said.

Ontario's system is expected to set to the interaction of U.S. tariffs implicit time, the FAO said. From 2027 to 2029, the province's existent GDP maturation would amended to an mean of 1.8 per cent, which the study says is "modestly slower" than the nary tariff script of 1.9 per cent.

Prices for consumers are expected to summation "modestly," the study said, arsenic Ontario's Consumer Price Index ostentation complaint is projected to beryllium 0.2 per cent higher successful 2025 and 0.3 per cent higher successful 2025, compared to the nary tariffs scenario.