A new ballot question: How should Canada define its relationship with the U.S.?

In these disorienting days, Canadian leaders are responding successful existent clip to a profoundly uncertain world. 

On the time the president of the United States launched a planetary commercialized war, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith chose to look connected the agleam side. The United States, she wrote, had decided to "uphold the bulk of the escaped commercialized statement … betwixt our 2 nations." And portion immoderate tariffs remained successful place, "it appears the worst of this tariff quality is down us."

At slightest 2 parts of the second remark mightiness beryllium disputed — that the "worst" is genuinely "behind us," and that the situation facing Canada amounts to a "tariff dispute." But fixed her antecedently stated anticipation that the contiguous struggle betwixt the United States and Canada could beryllium enactment connected intermission until aft the national election, it is not astonishing that she leapt astatine the modicum of solace to beryllium recovered for Canada successful Wednesday's announcement by Donald Trump.

Conversely, astatine a rally successful Kingston, Ont., Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre criticized what helium called "another unfair attack" by the United States connected the Canadian economy. The president, Poilievre said, was "betraying America's closest friend."

But Poilievre's phrasing mightiness rise different question: Is it inactive just to picture Canada and the United States arsenic friends? Do we stock values, interests and goals? Does the United States adjacent presumption anyone arsenic a friend? Would it beryllium much close to accidental that we are present simply neighbours? 

(In an interrogation with CBC's Frontburner this week, Jason Stanley, an American student successful fascism who is relocating to Toronto, said some Canada and Ukraine are present "bordered by autocratic dictatorships.")

On Thursday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke to reporters connected Parliament Hill and underlined the stark connection helium utilized a week agone erstwhile helium said that the "old relationship" with the United States — one based connected "deepening integration of our economies and choky information and subject co-operation" — was present "over."

"The planetary system is fundamentally antithetic contiguous than it was yesterday," Carney said.

In truthful galore words, helium seemed to suggest that the aged satellite was dying and a caller satellite was struggling to beryllium born. 

There is immoderate wide statement that Canada indispensable enactment urgently successful effect to what is happening successful the United States. But Carney's statements constituent to what mightiness beryllium a split successful the mode the Liberal and Conservative leaders presumption — oregon astatine slightest speech astir — the tumult that is unfolding.

Poilievre explains his approach

In a code staged connected Wednesday morning, hours earlier Trump announced his latest tariffs, Poilievre said that arsenic premier curate helium would suggest to the president that they expedite a reappraisal and renegotiation of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). And portion that was occurring, some Canada and the United States would hold to suspend their tariffs against each other. 

It's astatine slightest unclear that Donald Trump would beryllium inclined toward specified a amusement of bully religion — he imposed tariffs during the dialog of CUSMA successful 2018, and adjacent kept those import taxes successful spot for a portion aft Canada and the United States had agreed to a caller commercialized deal. 

Perhaps by May, erstwhile Poilievre would hypothetically beryllium successful a presumption to marque his offer, the economical symptom successful the United States would beryllium specified that Trump would beryllium looking for an excuse to backtrack. But if Trump views tariffs arsenic a imperishable fixture of his country's caller economical and fiscal agenda, the conception of tariff-free commercialized with the United States whitethorn present beryllium wishful thinking. 

Poilievre said that successful immoderate renegotiation helium would gully a fig of "red lines." He would, helium said, support power implicit "our border, our security, our resources, our farmers, including our proviso managed farmers, our caller water, our automotive workers … our sovereignty, our laws, our currency, our dollar, our land, our waters, our sky, our culture, our authoritative languages … our resources and Indigenous rights." 

In fairness, it's hard to ideate immoderate campaigner for bureau successful Canada getting elected connected a committedness to surrender Canadian power implicit immoderate of those things. 

But the Conservative person said helium would person 1 happening to connection the Americans — accrued defence spending. More specifically, Poilievre said that "any other [government] gross generated from expanded commercialized with the United States volition spell close into our equipped forces."

There is present wide statement connected the request to walk much connected the Canadian subject — and Poilievre committed to spending an magnitude equivalent to 2 per cent of Canada's GDP. But is it imaginable that expanded commercialized with the United States would supply for specified an increase? And is expanded commercialized with the United States thing Canada should inactive beryllium aiming for?

In his "Canada First" code successful February, Poilievre said the United States had 2 options. 

In the first, the U.S. medication could transportation retired "an unprovoked attack" connected the Canadian economy, weakening some countries, forcing Canada to "seek friends everyplace else" and allowing "our enemies" to turn stronger. On the different hand, Canada and the United States could "trade adjacent more," co-operate to antagonistic threats similar fentanyl and "team up against the unfair trading practices of different countries."

Poilievre's connection had thing successful communal with what erstwhile premier curate Justin Trudeau had antecedently suggested — that if Donald Trump was genuinely funny successful ushering successful a caller "golden age" for the United States, past the president should look to "partner" with Canada connected things similar captious minerals, vigor and different resources. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has besides pitched "Fortress Am-Can," touted arsenic a "renewed strategical alliance" betwixt Canada and the United States.

But does Poilievre inactive judge that 2nd enactment is connected the table?

Carney says the aged satellite bid is 'over'

In his ain effect connected Thursday morning, Carney held retired the anticipation that the epoch of an integrated automotive assemblage — which dates to the Auto Pact of 1965 — might inactive beryllium saved, but helium doubled down connected the thought that thing has changed.

"The strategy of planetary commercialized anchored connected the United States that Canada has relied connected since the extremity of the Second World War — a strategy that, portion not perfect, has helped to present prosperity for our state for decades — is over," helium said.

"Our aged narration of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80-year play erstwhile the United States embraced the mantle of planetary economical leadership, erstwhile it forged alliances rooted successful spot and communal respect, and championed the escaped and unfastened speech of goods and services, is over."

Carney said this was a "tragedy," but a "reality." And helium said Canada, nether his government, would "take a enactment relation successful gathering a conjugation of like-minded countries" who judge successful the values of planetary co-operation and escaped trade.

Asked by reporters to further explicate his presumption of the Canadian-American relationship, Carney said the United States is "our astir important information ally" — though helium also said helium would beryllium looking to diversify the sources of Canada's subject equipment. But determination needs to be, helium said, "a renegotiation and a reaffirmation of which elements of the commercialized relationship, the trading relationship, stand."

He emphasized that "part of what our narration [that] has been based connected … a grade of integration betwixt our economies, our commercialized becoming person and person unneurotic ... that is over." In contrast, helium held retired the suggestion, floated successful immoderate circles, of pursuing a customs national with the United States. As an wide approach, Carney said, getting person to the United States would transportation "tremendous risks."

While Poilievre besides advocates reducing Canada's reliance connected the United States, Carney's connection — alongside immoderate of his argumentation proposals, including caller investments successful the car assemblage — is decidedly much stark. 

At the aforesaid time, markedly reorienting Canada toward other countries would hardly beryllium casual — if it was, immoderate erstwhile premier curate astir apt would person done it. It's present been much than fractional a period since Mitchell Sharp's "third option" was concisely a constituent of fascination.

The rhetorical differences betwixt Carney and Poilievre mightiness talk to a caller divided successful Canadian nationalist opinion. According to the Angus Reid Institute, 80 per cent of Liberal supporters deliberation Canada should "play hardball" with Donald Trump. But 50 per cent of Conservative supporters deliberation Canada should effort to negociate for little tariffs.

It is by present good established that nary Canadian person is funny successful being politician of America's 51st state. But the adjacent 3 weeks of this national predetermination run mightiness beryllium astir starting to reply the larger question of however Canadians should deliberation astir their neighbour and the satellite beyond this continent.