How strategic voting may play a role in this election

Mark Gollom · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 27, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 10 minutes ago

In his Vancouver-area riding, NDP campaigner Peter Julian is calling connected those who would usually vote Liberal oregon Green to ballot for him.

He claims the Conservatives are counting connected a divided vote, and that supporting his candidacy volition assistance guarantee Pierre Poilievre doesn't take power.

What Juilan is saying is that those Liberal oregon Green supporters should see strategical voting. It's a voting strategy that's been employed successful elections before, and being called upon again successful this national election.

But what is it? And is it effective? CBC News explains.

What is strategical voting?

Strategic voting occurs when someone who, alternatively of voting for the enactment of their choice, decides to ballot for different enactment successful bid to artifact a 3rd enactment from gaining office.

"If I similar the NDP [and] that's my sincere preference, but I ballot for the Liberals to halt the Conservatives, past the communal phraseology is that I didn't ballot sincerely. I voted strategically for the Liberals to forestall the Conservatives from winning," explained Christopher Cochrane, an subordinate prof of political subject astatine the University of Toronto.

But different examples see Liberals voting for a beardown NDP campaigner to halt the Conservatives successful a peculiar riding if they consciousness the Liberal campaigner has nary changeable of winning.

As well, a Conservative mightiness besides ballot for an NDP campaigner to halt the Liberals from taking the seat.

What are the challenges of strategical voting?

For strategical voting to beryllium effective, determination needs to beryllium immoderate benignant of information astir elector preferences successful that riding.  

Based connected electoral history, it whitethorn beryllium easier to foretell those preferences successful immoderate ridings.

But portion there's often an abundance of national polling information for a national election or provincial polling information for a provincial election, polling information for a circumstantial riding tin beryllium hard to travel by.

When it exists, it's besides often less reliable.

"One of the large challenges successful our electoral strategy with strategical voting is that radical often look astatine national-level polls erstwhile they determine whether and however to ballot strategically, erstwhile what yet matters is the section results," Cochrane said.

That could pb to a situation, Cochrane said, wherever the local NDP campaigner is astir apt to bushed the Conservative candidate — but voters alternatively determination toward the Liberals due to the fact that they're much apt than the Conservatives to signifier government.

"Then you could person successful that territory the nonstop other effect of what the strategical voters are aiming for."

What are the pros and cons?

Certainly the vantage of strategic voting is that it could assistance support a voter's "worst-case scenario" of a peculiar person and enactment from taking power.

However, specified strategical votes besides could person semipermanent consequences.

If New Democrat supporters abandon the enactment to ballot Liberal, the resulting mediocre showing could mean the NDP has authoritative enactment presumption successful Parliament — leaving it severely underfunded arsenic a result.

"They're not capable to get their connection out. People halt donating to them," Cochrane said. "Then the New Democrats could cease to beryllium arsenic a viable party."

What relation does strategical voting play in an election?

Andre Blais, a governmental subject prof emeritus at the Université de Montreal who has studied strategical voting, said probe shows that astir 5 per cent of radical ballot strategically successful Canadian elections.

Perhaps not surprisingly, those who are much apt to ballot strategically are those with weaker elector preferences, helium said.

"If you similar the NDP but you don't similar it that much, you're much apt to entertain the anticipation of voting for different party," helium said.

In astir elections, Blais said, determination mightiness beryllium conscionable a fistful of ridings wherever strategic voting tin alteration the outcome. 

"I fishy that determination volition beryllium very, precise fewer cases wherever it benignant of makes the difference," helium said. "What we bash know, I think, [is] that it's precise improbable to beryllium decisive successful astir constituencies."