Liberals pushed Trump as key election issue, but lost seats on front lines of the trade war

Darren Major · CBC News

· Posted: May 01, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

As Mark Carney closed retired his triumph code connected predetermination night, helium reminded Canadians — arsenic helium did done overmuch of the run — of the challenges posed by the ongoing tensions with the U.S. administration.

"We volition physique an autarkic aboriginal for our large country," helium said to the crowd. "Vive le Canada."

But aft touting himself arsenic the champion campaigner to grip U.S. President Donald Trump, Carney's Liberals mislaid cardinal seats connected the beforehand lines of the commercialized warfare — seats that, had they won, could person pushed the enactment into bulk territory.

Conservative Fred Davies, who won the riding of Niagara South implicit Liberal incumbent Vance Badawey, said his party's connection astir addressing affordability issues yet won out.

WATCH | Carney speaks to Trump aft number predetermination victory: 

"Tariffs were threatened. That benignant of stole the communicative for a while. But adjacent the extremity of the campaign, it got backmost to those aforesaid issues of affordability and the outgo of living," Davies told CBC News.

"We mislaid an full procreation of young radical who couldn't spend the down outgo connected a house. So those cardinal issues resonated with young radical who are struggling."

Niagara South, formerly called Niagara Centre earlier ridings were redistributed, has mostly been a three-way contention successful the past fewer decades. Niagara Centre had ever been a blue-collar, manufacturing country — and with the redrawn lines it is present close connected the U.S. border. The riding has flipped backmost and distant betwixt the Liberals and NDP, but Conservatives had been competitory with adjacent second- and third-place finishes.

"I was ever moving arsenic though I was benignant of 5 points down successful the polls," Davies said.

Dan Arnold — who worked connected Justin Trudeau's predetermination campaigns and is present with the marketplace probe steadfast Pollara Strategic Insights — said it would marque consciousness that ridings similar Niagara South, which borderline the U.S. and person a dense manufacturing presence, would spell reddish successful an predetermination wherever the Liberals pushed Trump arsenic the main issue.

"Intuitively these are the types of ridings you would expect the Liberals to bash good in," helium said. But helium besides said cost-of-living issues, peculiarly successful housing, are inactive a large worry.

"For a batch of voters successful those ridings, lodging prices person truly changeable up successful the past mates years. Affordability is simply a large concern," helium said.

Just down the Queen Elizabeth Way road from Niagara successful Hamilton — a steel-manufacturing hub that is exposed to Trump's tariffs — a akin communicative played out.

In the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, incumbent Liberal Chad Collins mislaid to Conservative Ned Kuruc.

Former lawman premier curate Sheila Copps, who represented the riding erstwhile it was called Hamilton East, said redistribution had a ample portion successful Collins's unseating.

"The setup of the full riding is conscionable overmuch antithetic than what it was. It utilized to beryllium an municipality riding. It's nary longer an municipality riding, it's a partial municipality riding," she said.

Davies said helium besides apt benefited from his riding expanding into much agrarian areas of the Niagara region. But helium suggested that immoderate of his enactment besides came from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre courting blue-collar voters.

"[Poilievre] and I spent a batch of clip gathering with private-sector unions present successful Niagara," Davies said.

Like the riding formerly known arsenic Niagara Centre, Hamilton East had mostly been a three-way combat successful the past fewer decades. But successful this election, successful some ridings — and crossed the state — the NDP ballot collapsed and shifted to the different parties. While Collins and Badawey mislaid their seats, they finished with a overmuch higher ballot tally and stock than they had successful the erstwhile election.

WATCH | Polls predicted predetermination well, but immoderate weird Ontario results, says pollster: 

Arnold said that galore NDP voters went to the Liberals this election, but successful areas similar Niagara and Hamilton, much went to the Conservatives.

"There are orange-blue switchers. They thin to beryllium a spot much bluish collar, a spot much union. And this campaign, the NDP benignant of disappeared, truthful those blue-orange switchers benignant of had to take wherever to spell and they would beryllium much inclined to evidently spell to the bluish team," helium said.

Copps said she isn't amazed that immoderate NDP supporters would parkland their ballot with the Conservatives.

"Some of them are precise anti-Liberal and would ne'er ballot Liberal," she said.

But Copps argued that immoderate blue-collar workers besides apt went to the Liberals this election, astatine slightest successful Hamilton. She noted that immoderate of the municipality areas of her erstwhile riding — including the determination of the Dofasco Steel Mill — were absorbed into the neighbouring territory of Hamilton Centre, wherever the Liberals conscionable unseated an NDP incumbent.

Historic bluish expanse successful Windsor

Windsor, the bosom of Canada's car sector, saw a akin effect to Hamilton and Niagara. Carney doubly visited Windsor during the campaign, erstwhile astatine the commencement and erstwhile adjacent the end.

But erstwhile the votes were tallied, the Conservatives had swept the Windsor country for the archetypal clip successful 95 years.

In Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, wherever Liberal incumbent Irek Kusmierczyk mislaid a adjacent contention to Conservative Kathy Borrelli, the CBC Decision Desk didn't marque a telephone until Tuesday afternoon. In the neighbouring riding of Windsor-West, Conservative Harb Gill knocked disconnected 20-year NDP incumbent Brian Masse.

Lydia Miljan, the caput of the governmental subject section astatine the University of Windsor, said she was "completely shocked" by the Conservative expanse of the city. She attributed their pick-ups to the NDP ballot collapse.

"Clearly the Conservatives were precise effectual astatine some getting retired for their ballot and having that crushed game, but besides they're truly effectual successful courting the labour ballot and pulling that distant from the NDP," said Miljan.

Had Kusmierczyk, Collins and Badaway each retained their seats, it would person fixed the Liberals a majority, albeit a slim one. But Arnold said contempt these 3 losses, the Trump contented intelligibly resonated with voters. All 3 mislaid adjacent races portion expanding their ballot stock from the past predetermination — it conscionable wasn't capable to apical the surge successful Conservative support.

"Obviously immoderate radical were straight impacted by … tariffs, but astir apt much radical were impacted by rising location prices," helium said.