Poilievre hopes young men are listening as he appeals for record turnout

Ian Froese · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 26, 2025 7:59 PM EDT | Last Updated: 1 infinitesimal ago

Pierre Poilievre is trying to triumph implicit young radical erstwhile helium says helium needs the "biggest elector turnout successful Canadian history" to reverse a Liberal triumph immoderate polls suggest is simply a foregone conclusion, governmental experts say.

Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are astir likely to enactment Poilievre's Conservatives — but they're besides the slightest apt demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and marketplace probe steadfast Abacus Data.

"He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout," Coletto said.

"He needs to find a mode to motivate younger, little reliable, little apt voters, radical who whitethorn ne'er person voted successful an predetermination before."

CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publically disposable polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority authorities come election day.

But elector enactment has coalesced astir the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this predetermination into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator. 

Big turnout is way to victory: Poilievre

Poilievre made his transportation for a grounds turnout astatine a Calgary rally connected Friday. Organizers accidental much than 3,000 radical heard his call. 

"Are you going to scope retired to each the radical who whitethorn person fixed up connected beingness and archer them that there's anticipation if they ballot for a change?" Poilievre told the crowd.

"We request the biggest elector turnout successful Canadian past to present the alteration that Canadians need."

In bid to win, Coletto said the Conservatives indispensable flooded the advantage the Liberals person among older voters, the demographic astir apt to vote.

In 2015, Justin Trudeau became premier curate successful portion due to the fact that helium won implicit young voters, Coletto noted. 

"And truthful successful a mode — ironically, really — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the occurrence of Trudeau 10 years agone in getting those little reliable non-voters retired this time."

The Conservatives are apt hoping the polls are undercounting their support, thing that occurred successful the 2 previous elections, Coletto said.

But helium added that the polls missing by one oregon 2 percent points again apt won't alteration the result of this year's election.

"The lone variable left is to outhustle and out-turnout your competitors."

The Conservatives won the fashionable ballot successful the 2021 and 2019 elections, but mislaid those elections arsenic well.

Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist, doesn't deliberation the party's entreaty for a grounds turnout is remarkable. She says each enactment is doing a get-out-the-vote propulsion close now, and this is conscionable however the Conservatives are going astir it.

She besides believes, however, the Conservatives are targeting a demographic little apt to spot voting arsenic a duty. 

"It's 1 happening to prosecute [with young people]," said Galbraith, co-founder and spouse of the communications steadfast Oyster Group. "It's different happening to get them retired to ballot oregon get their friends and colleagues retired to vote."

Political parties trying to bring down incumbent governments mostly payment from higher turnouts, arsenic it usually shows voters' appetite for change, said Éric Grenier, the polling expert who runs CBC's Poll Tracker and founded thewrit.ca.

"But I question whether this is simply a mean election. There's evidently been a precocious engagement successful the election," helium said, noting the commercialized warfare caused by U.S. President Donald Trump.

'Go to Ontario'

Elections Canada said an estimated 7.3 cardinal Canadians — a record — cast their ballots during the precocious voting period. That's a 25 per cent summation from 2021.

Geneviève Tellier, a governmental subject prof astatine the University of Ottawa, finds it puzzling Poilievre would telephone for a record turnout successful Calgary, a Conservative stronghold, arsenic it would chiefly have the effect of padding the party's borderline of triumph determination — speech from the fewer seats the Liberals are aiming to flip.

Tellier suggested Poilievre doesn't expect to triumph the election anymore.

"Why bash you entreaty to voters that won't alteration the numbers of ridings you volition win?" she asked. "If the nonsubjective is to summation the [percentage] of fashionable enactment [that makes consciousness but] if the strategy is to triumph much seats, past spell to Ontario."

Calgary halt criticized

The Conservatives' determination to visit Calgary in the last days of the run raised eyebrows from some party operatives who spoke to CBC News Friday.

Two of them said the enactment should beryllium making a play for plaything voters elsewhere since there's small clip earlier Monday's election.

The speedy rally, held astatine a backstage pitchy hangar adjacent Calgary International Airport, was billed arsenic a "whistle stop" connected the mode to B.C., a state important to the party's electoral hopes.

Galbraith said it doesn't truly substance wherever the Conservatives are asking for a grounds turnout, fixed that cardinal messages from governmental rallies dispersed online with ease.

It was successful Edmonton wherever erstwhile premier curate Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre, "but it was broadcast crossed the state truthful it doesn't substance wherever helium does it immoderate more," she said.