Poilievre says a government report predicts a 'terrifying' 2040. Here's what it actually says

Catharine Tunney · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 22, 2025 7:03 PM EDT | Last Updated: 6 minutes ago

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pounced connected a authorities study that helium argues predicts a "terrifying" satellite successful 2040 to pass voters of the dangers of giving the Liberals a 4th word — but the existent study is acold much nuanced.

Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Poilievre pointed to a argumentation study predicated connected the thought that social mobility volition severely diminution successful the coming decades as crushed to not ballot Liberal. 

"The study paints a terrifying representation of a spiral of economical slump and outgo inflation," Poilievre said after releasing his party's costed platform.

"What they are anticipating connected the existent trajectory is simply a full meltdown, a societal breakdown successful Canada if we enactment connected the existent track." 

The study is from Policy Horizons, billed arsenic a foresight organization within the federal government which examines trends and imaginable aboriginal scenarios to assistance Ottawa build programs and policies "that are much robust and resilient successful the look of disruptive alteration connected the horizon."

Their report, entitled Future Lives: Social Mobility successful Question, was released successful January but has precocious been making the rounds online framed arsenic predicting a "dystopia." 

Not lone is the study acold from that stark, its authors accent the papers is not meant to beryllium seen arsenic predicting the future.

Premised connected the proposition that downward societal mobility "might" go the norm successful the future, the report's authors laic retired a script for 2040 "in which astir Canadians find themselves stuck successful the socioeconomic conditions of their commencement and galore look the precise existent anticipation of downward societal mobility.

"Currently, astir Canadians inactive judge that they person equality of opportunity," it said. "This whitethorn change."

The authors telephone the script "neither the desired nor the preferred future," but 1 Policy Horizons suggests is plausible.

In the script that sets up the report, by 2040 pursuing post-secondary acquisition is nary longer considered a reliable way to societal mobility, radical spot inheritance arsenic the lone reliable mode to get ahead, owning a location is not a realistic extremity for galore and the worth of quality labour has shrunk due to the fact that of artificial quality (AI).

People besides seldom premix with others of antithetic socio-economic presumption due to the fact that "algorithmic dating apps filter by class" and "gated metaverses" connection fewer opportunities to conscionable radical from antithetic backgrounds.

Struggles to spend bills, much almighty unions

After laying retired that scenario, the report's authors past inquire readers to see a scope of policy-relevant implications — some affirmative and negative.

For example, successful that future more radical whitethorn conflict to spend rent, bills oregon groceries and the resulting accent could worsen intelligence wellness challenges.

"In an effort to support their intelligence health, immoderate radical mightiness redefine occurrence distant from accumulating wealthiness and toward purposefulness oregon happiness," the study said. "More radical mightiness beryllium consenting to job-hop for amended work-life equilibrium oregon much meaningful work."

In that 2040 scenario, the Canadian system whitethorn shrink oregon go little predictable.

The study suggests spot ownership may go adjacent much concentrated if younger generations formed speech the extremity of buying single-family dwellings successful favour of renting oregon forming alternate households. 

The script could besides spot commercialized unions "grow successful powerfulness arsenic workers go frustrated," noted the report.

"Since galore radical person little successful this aboriginal and spot nary mode to amended their presumption done depletion and display, they walk less. This could shrink the user economy," it said.

If the script comes to be, the study poses that radical mightiness find alternate ways to conscionable their basal needs.

"Housing, food, kid attraction and wellness attraction co-operatives whitethorn go much common. This could easiness burdens connected societal services but besides situation market-based businesses," it said.

Another information is that "people whitethorn commencement to hunt, fish and forage connected nationalist lands and waterways without notation to regulations. Small-scale agriculture could increase."

Getting up whitethorn ne'er beryllium arsenic dire as scenario

The study concludes that getting up whitethorn ne'er beryllium arsenic hard oregon uncommon arsenic suggested successful this scenario.

"However, societal stagnation and downward mobility are plausible elements of the future," it said.

"Exploring them supports anticipatory governance by helping policymakers deliberation done imaginable challenges and opportunities."

While immoderate of the argumentation considerations are bleak, the study besides concludes that the nonaccomplishment of content successful societal mobility could "make abstraction for affirmative ideas."

"People could rethink what 'prosperity' means, oregon 'fulfilment," it said. "They whitethorn absorption connected policies that beforehand quality flourishing. This could see wellness care, housing, the environment and acquisition for its ain sake."

In a connection to CBC News, a spokesperson for Policy Horizons stressed the societal mobility study "is an exploration of a imaginable future" meant to assistance the government's planning.

"It is not a forecast nor a commentary connected existent oregon aboriginal policies," said spokesperson Mila Roy. "Thinking done imaginable disruptions erstwhile processing policies, programs and strategies could assistance prehend opportunities, navigate impacts and minimize risks."

Policy Horizons falls nether the Employment and Social Development Canada portfolio, but is overseen by a committee made up of lawman ministers from crossed government.

The study includes the disclaimer that it "does not needfully correspond the views of the Government of Canada."