Why Quebec could once again tip the balance in this federal election

Benjamin Shingler · CBC News

· Posted: Apr 27, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago

At a casse-croûte connected Montreal's South Shore, Anne-Marie Pinot settles successful for a lunchtime poutine. She has voted for governmental parties crossed the spectrum implicit the years, but this time, she is voting Bloc Québécois. 

Pinot is acrophobic astir the menace posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, but worries Quebec could beryllium forgotten successful commercialized negotiations without a beardown section voice. Her 18-year-old daughter, besides a Bloc supporter, motivated her to get much progressive with the sovereigntist party.

"The thought is to support the Quebec economy," said Pinot, aft snapping a selfie with Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who stopped for a photo-op successful the hotly contested riding of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, wherever polls suggest the Liberals are successful a choky contention with Bloc incumbent Denis Trudel.

Pinot's statement reflects what Blanchet has been trying to get crossed to voters, successful what has proven to beryllium a challenging run for the sovereigntist party.

The shadiness formed by Trump has loomed ample successful Quebec, wherever questions of individuality and civilization person not been arsenic contiguous arsenic successful erstwhile campaigns, said Sébastien Dallaire, enforcement vice-president with the polling steadfast Leger.

"In the past fewer electoral cycles, it was easier to tally connected individuality issues. That truly gave the Bloc an borderline compared to different parties," Dallaire said.

"Without this, arsenic radical are talking much mostly astir the economy, however to support Canada against the threats coming from the United States, it was overmuch harder for the Bloc to truly marque its dependable heard successful that context."

Bloc's pitch: 'We volition beryllium a liable partner' 

The latest sentiment polls amusement the Liberals could triumph arsenic galore arsenic 45 of the province's 78 seats, with the Bloc a distant 2nd with betwixt 19 and 26, according to CBC's Poll Tracker.  

In the 2021 election, the Liberals won 35 seats, compared with 32 for the Bloc.

The tracker suggests the Conservatives could triumph betwixt 12 and 14, up from 10 successful 2021. The NDP is hoping to clasp connected to its lone spot successful Quebec, with Alexandre Boulerice successful Montreal.

In the last agelong of the campaign, Blanchet has acknowledged the Liberals could signifier the adjacent authorities and has tried to marque the lawsuit that the Bloc needs capable seats to correspond Quebec's interests successful Ottawa.

"I don't privation to beryllium premier minister, but I tin connection to beryllium a partner, a liable partner, a collaborative partner," Blanchet said during the English debate, stressing the request for the adjacent national authorities to support the province's aluminum manufacture from tariffs, arsenic good arsenic the French connection and culture.

"If we are respected, we volition beryllium a partner, and past Canada volition beryllium stronger successful its dialog with Donald Trump."

The 2 main parties person besides tried to enactment up support. Liberal Leader Mark Carney spent a time successful Quebec during the past week of the campaign. 

In Trois-Rivières, different hotly contested riding, Carney said French connection and individuality and proviso absorption are not "negotiable" successful the look of Trump.

"As agelong arsenic I americium premier minister, those cardinal components of our nine and of Quebec's system and the system of each of Canada volition ne'er beryllium called into question," helium said.

The Conservatives look to person a stronghold successful the Quebec City area, wherever Pierre Poilievre announced his party's "Quebec platform" past month. Poilievre has said helium would support Quebec's autonomy and the French connection and chopped the fig of non-permanent residents successful the state by 50 per cent — a request by Premier François Legault.

As enactment leaders wrapper up their pitches, analysts accidental Trump's power inactive hangs implicit the campaign.

"Even if Trump mightiness beryllium little cardinal to the debates now, determination is simply a way that was created — 1 that's favourable to the Liberals — and the Bloc and the Conservatives person been incapable to truly displacement that path," said Daniel Béland, a governmental subject prof and manager of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.

WATCH | How voters successful Quebec presumption the campaign:

Trump and different issues

Election campaigns thin to commencement with argumentation and numbers, and crook toward emotion adjacent the extremity of a campaign, but successful this case, Trump's threats flipped the script, Dallaire said.

"Now it's much of a calculating, much rational extremity to a campaign," helium said.

Affordability is inactive a large issue, but ostentation could perchance get worse if a commercialized warfare escalates with the U.S.

"It brings up concerns astir your occupation and your family's well-being," Dallaire said.

"All these things are intimately intertwined."

In Longueuil this week, respective residents said outgo of surviving was among their apical concerns.

"I'm a student, truthful everything is truly expensive," said Marianne Boisclair, adding that the situation was besides a apical concern.

Robert Lauzon, who supports the Bloc, said his priorities are the "economy for sure, and the spot for Quebec successful Canada."

On her mode to the buying promenade with her newborn, Evelyne Gauvin said enactment for families and the situation were important. But the U.S. president "is inactive precise overmuch portion of the debate." 

"And I deliberation helium is going to beryllium determination until the extremity of his mandate," she added.

With that successful mind, the Bloc could beryllium particularly vulnerable, polls suggest — and what happens to its spot number could extremity the balance. 

"How overmuch volition the Bloc beryllium capable to keep? That whitethorn good determine if we person a bulk oregon a number government," Dallaire said.